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USDX: Daily analysis for June 27, 2013
Daily chart: The USDX continues to consolidate above the support at 82.51 level. Now, the USDX is forming a lower high pattern, to try to climb to the next resistance level of 83.22, which is very possible if the fundamental news for the USDX to become positive during the rest of the week. If the USDX manages to break the resistance 83.22 level, it would be expected to rise to the level of 83.74. The MACD indicator remains in positive territory and still shows no signs of extreme overbought on the USDX. In addition, the USDX is above the 200-day moving average, which strengthens our bullish outlook for the USDX.
H4 chart: The USDX tried to climb to the resistance at the 83.17 level but failed because a fractal was formed near that level and this has prevented the USDX to move higher. It is very likely that the USDX falls back to support at 82.15 level, which is the 200-day moving average. If the USDX manages to break this support, it is expected to fall to the level of 81.72. On the other hand, if the USDX manages to break the resistance at the 83.17 level, it would be expected to rise to the level of 83.30. The MACD indicator is in neutral territory.
H1 chart: At current levels, it is forming a Point of Control (POC), which could act as a strong support in the USDX and therefore, we must be cautious. If USDX manages to break this POC’s support, it would be expected to rise to the resistance level at 82.97 and if the USDX manages to break this resistance level, it would be expected to rise to the level of 83.27. Furthermore, if the USDX achieves in breaking the support level of 82.66, it is expected to drop to the level of 82.50. The MACD indicator is in negative territory and the USDX is above the 200-day moving average.
Fundamental outlook: In the U.S at 12:30 GMT the Unemployment Claims (Previous: 354K / Forecast: 347K) and at 14:00 GMT the Pending Home Sales (Previous: 0.3% / Forecast: 1.1%) will be published.
Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USDX Index breaks with a bullish candlestick, the resistance level is at 82.97, take profit is at 83.27, and stop loss is at 82.65. Place sell (short) orders only if the USDX Index breaks with a bearish candlestick, the support level is at 82.66, take profit is at 82.50, and stop loss is at 82.81.
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