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AUD/USD Wave Analysis for July 16, 2012

Posted at July 16, 2012 Categories : Forex Analysis |

AUD/USD Elliott Wave
Last week the AUD/USD pair has finished its developing corrective wave (2) (coloured green), and started developing impulsive wave 1 (coloured blue) of the bigger wave (3) (coloured green). During the Friday’s European session we could observe an ascending movement towards the 1.0185 level (new daily high). Therefore, during the New York session the AUD/USD pair continued trading in a bullish mood and the price reached 1.0228 level. Today during the beginning of the session, we could observe the price around 1.0248 level and we can consider this move as the end of the (3) wave (coloured pink) of the bigger wave 1 (coloured blue). At the moment the AUD/USD pair is developing corrective wave 4 and we are expecting to see the price higher today. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 5 retraces 61.8% of the wave 3, we can define the potential targets with measuring 3 wave with Take Profit at 1.0273 (61.8% of wave 1). Invalidation Point at 1.0153 point can be used as Stop Loss point. Also it is necessary to monitor the U.S. Core Retail Sales m/m, Retail Sales m/m, Empire State Manufacturing Index, Business Inventories m/m data that can change the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.0085 (S2) 1.0126 (S1) 1.0151 (PP) 1.0192 (R1) 1.0233 (R2) 1.0258 (R3) 1.0299
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules this week, the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 1.0200 with Stop Loss 1.0153 and Take Profit at 1.0273 are recommended.

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